Small-scale population forecast in the district of Holzminden (2017)

The district of Holzminden (Lower Saxony) developed a forward-looking integrated location and mobility concept within the framework of the BMVI model project Long-Term Securing of Supply and Mobility in Rural Areas in order to secure an adequate local supply of public and private services and their accessibility for all population groups through needs-based mobility against the background of a declining and ageing population, changes in mobility and supply behaviour as well as difficult financial room for manoeuvre.

S&W supported the district of Holzminden in the development of its strategy by providing the necessary information on the expected demographic development. For this purpose, S&W carried out a population forecast 2015 to 2035 at the municipal level and applied the population distribution model for the spatial disaggregation of the forecast population structure data to the districts in the municipalities and an area-wide 100x100 metre grid.