Population Disaggregation Model

For the development and implementation of a target-oriented adaptation strategy for the different areas of technical and social infrastructure and services, small-scale information on the age-structural development of the population and the resulting change in demand is required. With the population disaggregation model from S&W, the current or projected inhabitants are distributed to small-scale residential locations using the method of microsimulation. This allows small-scale accessibility evaluations and enables location-specific demand calculations and carrying capacity forecasts.

The raster cell-oriented spatial reference system has a high resolution with a size of 100 x 100 metres per raster cell. An application of the population disaggregation model is particularly suitable for the period between census years and for mapping future developments using population forecast data. To map realistic population age structures, the population disaggregation model is coupled with an ageing model. Local special effects and the integration of future settlement developments are optionally taken into account.

Modelled small-scale population density

Population forecast data at municipial district level